Friday, January 27, 2012

A Brief Discussion about Leadership

It can be said that the world is divided into leaders and followers. There are significant differences between good followers and bad followers, but the general understanding of a follower is well defined and accepted. Creating a consensus on what actions and characteristics typically define a leader is more difficult for there are a variety of opinions regarding essential leadership traits. Leaders are largely defined by their actions in groups and how those actions influence the dynamics of a group. One of the key attributes of a good leader is the optimization of the work environment, both from a personnel and a resource perspective.

Focusing first on the personnel aspect. It is not a leader’s job to promote harmony in the group; while harmony would be nice, the primary obligation of a leader is to make sure that Person A and Person B do their respective jobs. This duty can be more difficult if Person A and Person B do not like each other, but have to work together because their skills and expertise will produce better results. Thus it is a leader’s job to ensure that the disharmony and dislike between Person A and Person B does not interfere with their job performance. What happens if either Person A or Person B allows his/her personal feelings to influence performance? Such a situation is unfortunately complicated because the easiest solution is to remove the individual that is deemed less important (assume Person A for this scenario) from the team and bring in an individual with similar skills (Person A’). Using this strategy the job the released person was responsible for and the remaining individual (Person B) should increase in efficiency with little lost time or resources.

There are two obstacles with the easiest solution: it is frequently only useful in the short-term and it is questionable whether or not a Person A’ exists at the company in question. Person A was assigned to that particular team for a reason, more than likely because he/she was the best individual with the particular skill set, so if Person A’ even exists he/she will be inferior in skill at some significant level else Person A’ would have been assigned to the team in the first place. Therefore, the benefit of Person A’s dismissal must be weighed against the time and resources lost versus the gain of a productive Person A over the Person A’. In short the leader has to consider many cost-benefit questions on a theoretical level as noted below:

- What is the difference in skill level between Person A and Person A’ under normal working conditions?
- Are there skills and/or knowledge that Person A has that Person A’ does not? If so how relevant are they to the task at hand and how long would it take Person A’ to close the gap?
- What is the production drop-off from Person A when working with Person B and visa-versa?
- What would be the production change in both Person A’ and Person B when working together?
- What would be the time and resource expenditure when attempting to reconcile the differences between Person A and Person B?
- How many more projects would it be useful to have Person A and Person B work together (for skill set purposes)?

So although a leader is not obligated to play psychologist between Person A and Person B, he/she might have to for the benefit of the current project or future projects. Clearly the best way to neutralize these ill feelings would be to keep Person A and Person B segregated from each other. If they have to work together it is best to make it clear to both of them that the primary goal is the success of the project, how they feel about each other is irrelevant as success benefits both while failure would hurt both. This approach is necessary in most instances because typically when two people do not like each other to the point that it hurts productivity, that dislike is deep seated and the leader does not the time or resources to understand its origins and whatever may rectify it.

One of the more interesting questions regarding optimization of performance in a group is should the leader lead by example or act through delegation of duties? Leading by example seems to be the buzz phrase for leadership as it is frequently uttered in the business, political and entertainment world. The chief strength of leading by example is characterized by an increase in drive and motivation of other team members for witnessing the leader work directly ‘in the trenches’ to accomplish the goal typically enhances their own will to accomplish the goal.

An interesting element to this motivation enhancement is not any potential increase in motivate, but ensuring no decrease in motivation. Naturally any individual on a team should be instinctively motivated to accomplish the goal regardless of outside factors; however, in certain instances a weak and idle leader can foster deterioration in both confidence and willingness to work amongst team members creating an environment of inefficiency, jealousy and possible strife. Many people will attest that it is difficult to follow a leader who does not appear to do anything. Therefore, avoiding this drop-off in productivity is the primary issue for a leader to take an active role in achieving the goal.

Two main concerns stem from this type of leadership strategy. First, a strong and effective leader can instill complacency in other members of the team. Some individuals may allow a strong leader to perform much of the work either because they are just lazy or lack confidence in their own ability. With this potential outcome it is important for a leader to ensure that other team members are consistently being prodded for their input and are given significant tasks with realistic timetables.

If the leader can take on extra work it is appropriate to do so as long as all other team members have significantly important roles in the progression of the project. Realistically such a strategy should frequently be implemented, but as a neutralizing factor it should merely act as a backup plan as team members should be naturally motivated to succeed and such motivation should not diminish in the presence of a motivated and strong leader. A leader undertaking additional roles is important, but must be tempered with reason for if a leader over-extends in duty, it will have a negative effect in all areas of performance. Over-extension is the second potential drawback of direct active leadership for a leader can misinterpret his/her own superiority and skill based on position or preliminary results, which could accelerate parts of the project before they are ready. Such rapid movement can easily lead to wasted time, resources and damaged confidence among team members, especially if the leader participates in portions of the project outside his/her area of expertise.

Unlike a leader that leads by example who can simply take over the team and literally 'will' it to success, a leader who delegates needs to subtly control the direction of development and how each portion of the project advances. When teams are comprised of confident and competent members, delegation leadership is easy, just make sure everyone stays out of each other's way and slowly funnel information into the overall objective. When teams are comprised of less confident and/or competent individuals, delegation leadership becomes harder because the leader needs to identify relevant yet manageable goals for these members to ensure efficient progress. The main positive in this strategy is that delegation leadership has a tendency to improve the quality of a team faster than leadership by example because the probability of growth by each individual member is greater.

After considering the natural characteristics of the leader, a delegation strategy seems to be superior in situations where a solution will create a large number of new questions that will need to be answered by the same group. The delegation strategy creates a strong and more prepared team to solve the additional problems as long as they remain in the skill sets of those within the team. Leadership by example seems to be superior when striving for an isolated solution that needs to be attained in an accelerated fashion because team unity after the fact is not very important.

Overall the leader must be aware of when to apply one strategy versus the other for maximum results. Maximizing results should be a matter of personal pride for the leader because most people will tend not to care or criticize either strategy as long as the project moves forward in a positive way, but maximum output at lowest cost should always be the goal.

Monday, January 9, 2012

Climate Reporting in the Media

Recently climate blogs like Climate Progress and The Daily Climate have lamented the drop in reporting on climate related issues including what they perceive either as an unwillingness or inability to ‘connect the dots’ linking global warming to extreme weather events. The glaring problem with this lamentation is its lack of focus. What exactly do the administrators and commenters on these websites want and how do they propose to accomplish their desires? Initially one could conclude that they want more general stories about global warming, but how would those stories be presented? One option, as they suggest, could be to make a connection between extreme weather events and global warming. However, would this be appropriate?

While only an ignorant individual would conclude that the occurrence probability of extreme weather is unrelated to global warming, the problem with ‘tying’ global warming to extreme weather is that it is scientifically irresponsible to associate the actual occurrence of a given extreme weather event to global warming. Basically one cannot say that the only reason flood x or drought y occurred was solely due to global warming as providing definitive scientific proof for such a claim is nearly impossible. Unfortunately depending on changes in probabilistic magnitudes to associate global warming influence with extreme weather is confusing not just at a lay level, but also at a purely scientific level due to uncertainty.

Based on these elements it seems unlikely that any increase in climate reporting can develop correlations between global warming and a single specific extreme weather event. Therefore, within the confines of extreme weather events expansion of reporting on global warming appears limited to general analysis pieces explaining that the probability of occurrence and magnitude of extreme weather events increases by some unknown variable which increases as the planet warms. Unfortunately these information analysis pieces will more than likely not significantly increase the number of climate related issues discussed in the mainstream media because such a topic changes little with time. Thus multiple presentations of this information over a consistent short timeframe could result in most readers tuning out the information as ‘exactly the same as 5 days ago’ or ‘exactly the same as a report in publication y a week ago’. A number of individuals believe that a similar psychological attitude has handicapped the ability to properly respect the magnitude of detrimental consequences to global warming as a form of ‘doom saying’.

It is difficult to conclude that these individuals are lamenting about a lack of coverage regarding individual climate-related events because such reporting is reactive not proactive. Basically it is difficult to report on a hurricane that has not happened yet. For the most part most media organizations do a respectable job covering single climate based events and as discussed above it is impossible to associate the 100% occurrence of a given event with current climate conditions, thus media organizations cannot do so despite what their detractors may want.

Some could argue that the lack of coverage involves too many lulls for ongoing events. One example could be the 2010-2011 drought in Texas and other parts of the Southwest United States. In some context the drought become so commonplace and part of the general environment that it was no longer interesting to report on in the national media. Therefore, almost by default individuals could start to consider the drought conditions as the new normal despite that fact that they shouldn’t accept that as inevitable. Such a mindset is similar to the frog accepting a slowly and continuously warming frying pan not reacting and escaping until it is too late. While most climate stories are not ‘sexy’, heck it could not be surprising if ‘Jerry Sandusky’ has been mentioned more in the last four months than ‘global warming’ has been mentioned in the last 3 years, it does appear important for media organizations to continue to address the non-normal climate conditions to avoid a general malaise of acceptance.

Unfortunately amid all of the lamentation little productive information is being given with regards to how the media should correct itself. The only refrain is ‘more coverage, more coverage’, but suggestions on how to effectively accomplish this goal are few. While some may argue that blanket coverage (more regardless of quality as long as it acknowledges the reality of global warming and its dangers) is suitable because eventually enough of it should convince people, this strategy is probably not effective. First off as previously mentioned simply increasing the amount of climate stores could result in individuals ‘tuning out’ the stories limiting their effectiveness on combating malaise.

Some would argue that this ‘blanket’ strategy is the same general strategy used by global warming deniers to try to tip public sentiment in their favor and while true there are other factors at work. The strength of the denier argument is in the controversy they create. People inherently are distrustful of ‘guarantees’, especially when they are negative. The guarantee that global warming is real and it will be seriously detrimental allow a better acceptance environment for deniers to make inaccurate to crazy claims about how it is not true. Another advantage for the deniers in this ‘blanket’ strategy is the ability to better maintain variety in the attack. Deniers can challenge various aspects of global warming consequences using different ‘theories’ so other individuals do not become bored. For those trying to demonstrate the validity of global warming this variety is not so widely available as the same 5-6 topics dominate in global warming consequence prediction.

Instead of attempting ‘blanket’ coverage an organized information campaign on specific topics could be a better strategy. In this situation the media outlet would devote a specific amount of time to a given component of global warming over the course of a specific timeframe. For example a newspaper may decide to discuss ocean acidification where they devote a page two space once a day for a week. One of the important elements to such a strategy is to maximize the probability that individuals understand what they are reading. Thus the Monday and Tuesday stories would need to focus on more background information pertaining to the particular topic.

An immediate problem to executing the above strategy would be a lack of interest. As previously mentioned climate science and environmental issues are not sexy or typically short-term dynamic thus providing an incentive would be useful to encourage readership. One strategy to develop incentive would involve having a mini-quiz at the end of the week where individuals who answered 80% of the questions correctly would be entered into a contest to win some form of prize. The medium for the contest would be via the Internet or mail order through the U.S. post office. Environmental organizations could help sponsor these prizes if necessary.

On a related side note while the media can be criticized for not effectively addressing their role in fight the acceptance of a new normal most in the environmental community seem not to go far enough either. The environmental community should not only be pushing the media to lay the groundwork for climate understanding to combat malaise and legitimatize genuine importance, but also to provide a debating forum for solutions. Unfortunately a number of individuals in the environmental community do not want this debate. Most simply want the application of their ‘pet’ solutions and are unwilling to address whether or not those solutions are viable.

For example proponents of solar and wind deployment continuously shy away from addressing possible cost overruns due to lack of storage and intermittence in an energy infrastructure that no longer utilizes fossil fuels. Instead they foolishly or dishonestly report ‘grid parody’ prices for wind and solar relative to fossil fuels in the modern fossil fuel based energy infrastructure, numbers that do not make sense because if wind and solar are going to be a solution they must be incorporated into an infrastructure that does not utilize fossil fuels. In addition these same proponents avoid the question of a possible rare earth shortage which will disallow the economic development of a principally wind/solar energy infrastructure. Thus not only must the attitude of the media change with regards to covering climate issues, but so too must the attitudes of those who claim to be its champions.

Digressing back to the media aspect, the issue that environmentalists should be discussing is not necessarily quantity, but quality and how to deliver that quality. The goal of the media pertaining to climate issues is two-fold: provide enough information over a suitable number of intervals to combat malaise/mitigation of importance and provide that information in a way that actually allow individuals to intelligently participate in discussions regarding solving climate related problems. One possible strategy to aid in accomplishing these goals, which the media has thoroughly been lacking, would be to devote constant time to a given aspect of global warming with quizzes and prizes to increase interest and aid learning and retention. However, some could argue that the ‘blanket’ strategy is still an option. If so those making this argument need to address how to evade the concerns discussed above. Overall regardless of what strategies are utilized the environmental community needs to better outline in specific detail how the mainstream media should present climate information over just complaining about the lack of it.

Friday, December 30, 2011

The Flaw of the Flat Tax

Paying both federal and state income taxes can be an exasperating and depressing experience. It is easy to understand this dissatisfaction, especially because individuals do not know the precise destination of their tax dollars, instead watching the money vanish into a black hole riddled with waste and misappropriation. Unfortunately the black hole is not even the worst part of the tax system, yet few people seem to either realize the real problems in the tax system or care enough to do something about it.

One of the more popular suggested tax reforms is the elimination of the progressive tax system in favor of a flat tax system where all taxpayers would pay the same percentage of income. Proponents of the flat tax system sing its praises for its simplicity, what they believe as fairness and its ability to acquire more revenue for the federal government than the current progressive system due to a perceived elimination of a vast number of deductions and tax shelter tricks. However, proponents of the flat tax are either misinformed or trying to create a greater advantage for themselves with little concern for others.

Despite numerous studies concluding that flat taxes provide insufficient funds relative to the existing progressive tax system from a methodological standpoint comparing revenue gains from a flat tax system to the current progressive system is silly because the current system is so riddled with immorality and waste that almost any reform will give the appearance of a short-term increase in revenue with favorable assumptions. Therefore, if one were to be reasonable the flat tax system would need to be compared to other reforms in the progressive system and other new systems to gauge the legitimacy of its revenue collection superiority. Simply comparing one reform against the current system without comparing it against other possible reforms diminishes the authenticity of such an analysis. Such a mindset is also questionable in that it is irrational to conclude that there is only one possible alternative to an existing system or solution without careful analysis.

With regards to fairness it is easy to see why proponents of a flat tax system believe such a system is fairer to all parties than the current progressive system. The common flat tax and tax cut battle cry has frequently been ‘why should those that make more money be penalized?’ under the typically bias mindset that those who make a lot of money work harder than those who make less money. Most flat tax supporters appear to believe that the progressive tax system punishes ambition and success, which in turn may discourage individuals from being successful because the more successful they are the less they get. Of course any practical analysis instantly characterizes that complaint as complete and utter bull because first it is irrational to believe that an individual will be less motivated to acquire financial resources simply because they will have to pay more in taxes. Anyone given a choice between pursuing a career where he/she would make 25,000 dollars a year and pay 4,500 in taxes versus make 100,000 dollars and pay 34,000 dollars, would obviously selection the latter option. No reasonable person would elect to only make 20,500 dollars a year instead of 66,000 dollars a year to either ‘stick it to the man’ or because paying 34,000 dollars instead of 4,500 dollars to the government is so distressing that making a net of 45,500 dollars more is immaterial.

Proponents of a flat tax would contend that the above statement misses the point. The very fact that the disparity exists in the tax system at all is what is unfair. If these individuals feel so strongly about ‘rooting’ out unfairness then they should start promoting a communistic economic system. Capitalism is fraught with inequalities and unfairness for gone are the days where individuals can consistently achieve financial success by simply studying hard and working hard. There is indeed still the rare case where an individual pulls him/herself out of poverty to make it big, but in the modernized capitalistic system who you know and what resources you possess have a much more pronounced effect on your success than any drive to work hard. A majority of the individuals that have wealth today definitely took advantage of some of the unfair elements of capitalism to amass their fortunes. How funny it is that most individuals complain about unfair elements that are to their disadvantage, yet say nothing about unfair elements that are to their advantage.

Unfairness in capitalism and the role of the progressive and flat tax is best illustrated in an example. Consider two participants running a 400-meter dash, Runner A and Runner B where Runner A gets to start 100 meters ahead of Runner B (think of this as better connections and greater access to resources largely due to parental connections). The gun is fired, the participants run the race to the best of their ability and Runner A wins easily. Suppose then the timers elect to remove 5 seconds off of Runner B’s time closing the difference between the two times, yet still maintaining an easy victory for Runner A. Those that support a flat tax would cry foul about removing 5 seconds from Runner B’s time, but would remain silent about Runner A’s 100 meter head-start. Replacing the progressive tax with a flat tax would simply be removing one unfair element that favors the poor further stacking the deck in favor of the rich and well connected.

A more conspiracy theorist view of the flat tax could label the system itself as a fiendish negotiating tactic by the super rich. Perhaps one day the masses will realize the actual disparity in the tax rate between those who make 35,000 dollars a year versus those who make 1,000,000 dollars a year is not in their favor, but the favor of the million dollar earner due to government neutering of the IRS and tax loopholes for the rich. Such realization will result in a demand to close tax loopholes for both the individual and corporations reestablishing the genuine rate as outlined in the progressive system.

With this eventual understanding that some perceive to be inevitable, one could believe that the flat tax is just a preemptive strike to neutralize progressive tax reform. In essence although the flat tax would result in an increase in tax payment from net effective rate of the mid-teen (what most well-connected wealthy individuals pay) to something like 20% it would dramatically reduce the probability of reform within the progressive system itself that could result in a rate increase from mid-teens to 39% or even higher. So by giving up something like 4-5 percent points, the biggest benefactors of a flat tax save themselves a 20-30 percent point increase at some point in the future.

Finally the importance of the assigned tax rate in the flat tax itself deserves analysis. If the rate is too low, then the government will not be able to recoup the necessary capital required to effectively run programs for the benefit of its citizens, which would lead to the loss of certain programs or increased national debt either element would negatively affect the economy. If the rate is too high, then those in the lower portion of tax bracket in the progressive system will end up paying more and those in the higher portions of the tax bracket may end up paying less and that hardly seems to emulate the ‘fairness’ of the system, the less you make the more you pay. This single statement has deduced the reality behind the flat tax. Inherently in its purest ‘on paper’ form the flat tax is fair, but the current practice of capitalism is not. The insertion of a flat tax into an unfair system of much greater magnitude corrupts any authenticity in the flat tax. So while a flat tax may be fair in isolation, in the current economic system of the United States, it is unfair and unwarranted.

Death Penalty Logic?

Since 1973 the death penalty has regained its previously controversial place in society. The controversial nature of the death penalty is somewhat confusing in light of looking at the benefits of death penalty opposed to its detriments. A critical first question when evaluating the merits of the death penalty involves defining the purpose of the death penalty. One commonly citied goal for the death penalty is that of a deterrent, a means to prevent future actions which would warrant the death of the perpetrator. Although in theory this goal may seem logical and noble as preventing crime is always preferable to reacting to crime, no hard proof has ever been produced demonstrating a long-term reduction in homicides directly associated with the reemergence of the death penalty. So the goal of using the death penalty as a deterrent does not appear to be working,

If validating the death penalty through its use as a deterrent is not applicable in reality altering its goal to that of a tool for vengeance seems like the next logical step. The question of whether the death penalty actually serves as a positive psychological tool for the families of the victim is essential to judging the validity of this death penalty goal and purpose. Overall it is a troubling thought to think that families actually receive some level of satisfaction when the criminal is put to death over sentencing the criminal to permanent incarceration, but for the sake of argument consider for a moment that this reaction is indeed the case.

Why is it that the ‘vengeance’ mentality demands the ‘eye for an eye’ treatment in this situation? Although ‘ an eye for an eye’ can be regarded as an appropriate reaction, the concern is that some have come to believe that it is the only appropriate response available, which is not correct. Clearly a single action has many different reactions of differing severities. It is unrealistic to believe that only one specific response among a multitude of possible responses is appropriate instead there are a number of different options for redress and justice.

Why do some individuals look upon a lifetime of imprisonment as inappropriate? One of the worst things you can do to an individual is restrict or remove freedom. Although one could argue that the worst thing that can happen to an individual is the loss of his/her life, with suicide rates greater than zero clearly other individuals believe that living in certain circumstances are worse than death. From a psychological perspective restricting the freedom of an individual for the rest of his/her life appears to be an appropriate response for the vengeance seeking individual set on inflicting a significant level of suffering to the criminal as redress for the crime. For certain individuals one could regard life imprisonment as a worse punishment than death for certain individuals.

In regards to what comforts death offers a family over life imprisonment, any significant difference seems rare as both death and life imprisonment remove the ability of the individual to repeat the action against an individual that the family would regard as important or even society in general. The death itself may not be as tragic an event for the criminal as desired because of acceptance of the inevitable.

Also the numerous appeals and legal hurdles rightly involved in an execution typically provides delays of multiple years, which could inflict undue psychological damage on those who want to see a particular individual die, a case of deferred justice. In the end realistically very little is gained when electing to execute an individual over the punishment of life imprisonment for the sake of vengeance alone. Instead by electing to utilize an unnecessary and potentially savage response over one that is appropriate in its own right society could lose another shred of its humanity.

If deterrence and vengeance as reasonable motivating factors for utilizing the death penalty are eliminated, what makes the death penalty useful? Despite its flaws, the death penalty is remarkably effective as a bargaining chip for prosecutors when negotiating plea agreements with eligible criminals in question. The fear provided by the death penalty may not work as an effective deterrent in the prevention of certain crimes, but is effective in neutralizing the vigor in which a criminal may desire a trial. Whether or not this is actually a good thing is debatable. In a logical and perfect world one would conclude that only an individual that is actually guilty of a crime would plead guilty, but unfortunately due to fear and psychological trauma that ideal is not always achieved as individuals not guilty of the crimes they are accused of have pled guilty to lesser offenses or been found guilty by a jury.

So the death penalty may be a great negotiating tool only because of its greatest flaw, its finality. Clearly individuals in the past and more than likely in the present have been killed for crimes in which they have later been exonerated. Therefore, an individual that is not guilty may believe that pleading guilty to avoid the death penalty might be the only way to eventually prove his/her innocence of the accused crime and still have a life to live when this innocence is recognized. The fact that this psychological belief even exists demonstrates a great failure of the criminal justice system.

By stripping the death penalty of a worthy and significant purpose, the proverbial ‘death penalty horse’ has been shot and killed, but just to be thorough it is time to pick up a stick and commence wailing on it. Even if the death penalty did have a worthwhile purpose there would still exist multiple fronts in which opponents could attack both its philosophical existence (even when excluding moral arguments) and its execution (no pun intended). The primary goal of the prison system in general seems to be rehabilitation not punishment. The use of the death penalty displaces that goal for it is impossible for one to become a productive member of society if one is dead. It could be argued that the same failure occurs when an individual is sentenced to life without parole, but such a belief is in error.

Although an individual sentenced to life without parole will never be able to reemerge into society as a changed individual, if the individual is indeed rehabilitated he/she can instruct other individuals within jail and in society on what mistakes to avoid and provide other information and experiences that could better both the prison society and non-prison society. In response to those that believe certain individuals cannot be rehabilitated, the only way to be sure of such a position is to never give those individuals a chance.

Also when looking at life in prison versus the death penalty from a simple economic argument, the death penalty losses out as in every state that has studied the economic differences between death and life in prison has concluded that executions cost significantly more money mostly due to the required appeals that come with a death sentence to limit the possibility that a not-guilty individual is being put to death. Finally with regards to individuals who are deemed too violent for general population, solitary confinement is always available.

Overall opposition to the death penalty could be driven by any underlying concern for the sanctity of human life, but elements of practicality, efficiency and accuracy also play important roles.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Progress at Durban?

The two sides of contrast in the COP-17 agreement at Durban seem to divide on the perspective of goal advancement. Assume for a moment that the necessary emission reductions and other necessary strategies (leaning more towards various geo-engineering applications) can be akin to society collecting 10 fireflies in a jar. Suppose the consequence to not collecting these fireflies in a certain time frame is death.

The group who believes that Durban is a success could argue that Durban captured one firefly, finally the ‘developing’ nations like China and India acknowledge that they will need to cut emissions in consort with the developed nations not after. These individuals could also argue that those who view Durban as a failure are being unreasonable, assuming that a vast majority, if not all, of the fireflies could be captured in a single swipe of the jar. The ‘Durban was a success’ crowd believes that the best strategy for capturing all ten fireflies is to capture one firefly at a time and because Durban seems to have done just that it should be considered a success.

The ‘Durban was a failure’ crowd believes this mindset is foolish. This criticism flows one of two ways. First, society has not collected 10 fireflies yet and until that happens nothing else should be viewed as a success. Overall while understandable, this mindset is rather counterproductive and unrealistic because no rational person would conclude that such a dramatic shift in human society could occur in a single element short-time frame.

Second, even if you could argue that Durban was a success based on both the U.S., China, India, etc. actually agreeing, despite no binding elements, to reduce emissions within a global carbon scheme the problem is timing. Assume that both China and the U.S. actually live up to this pledge, a critic could state that why should people be happy about capturing one firefly, a firefly that has been evading the jar for over ten years since Kyoto. Does society really have the luxury of spending an average of ten years capturing each one of the remaining nine fireflies?

A critic could argue that perhaps it is time for a new strategy to capture these fireflies, one that does not involve aimlessly running around wildly swinging a jar (global climate conferences). Recall that a number of individuals believed that this ‘Durban’ firefly was captured in Bali in 2007 and the final details from Bali were supposed to be addressed in Copenhagen in 2009, all interested parties know how that turned out.

The biggest telling point in the above criticism is that with no binding elements in the agreement the proverbial can has simply been kicked down the street until the next conference, something society has been doing for the last decade. Without binding elements that could penalize non-participating or non-complying countries such emission agreements are equal to having a sizable hole in the jar where whether or not any fireflies remain captive is at the discretion of the firefly not society. When it is in the interest of the firefly to be free it is difficult to consider the possibility that it will voluntarily restrict itself for the sake of others.

Friday, November 25, 2011

Revisiting Campaign Finance Reform

The original question in Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission revolved around whether or not the FEC could use the McCain-Feingold Act (a.k.a. Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act) to prevent groups from distributing political advertisements within 30 or 60 days from a specific type of election. However, while this narrow element was the original nature of the case, the majority in the case expanded the breadth of the ruling to justify whether or not money expenditure in an election could be considered an extension of free speech and if corporations could use it for the direct purpose of supporting the election or defeat of a given candidate.

The somewhat sad reasoning in Citizens is that Justice Kennedy in the majority opinion seems to suggest that there is no way to distinguish between media (who was not restricted the McCain-Feingold Act) and other non-media corporation, even though governments and its agencies had been doing just that for years leading up to this case. The real question stemming from Citizens is what is the obligation of the United States to the Constitution when the consequences to possibility not upholding an aspect of it could be disastrous?

One of the chief problems with Citizens is the rationality that money is a form of speech and the First Amendment should protect its use. The underlying problem in the application of such a belief is that there is no inherent limit to the distribution of money. In this regard society tiers the importance of an individual’s speech by how much money he/she has. This scenario creates an unequal weight on speech that is not inherent to the accuracy of the speech. The point of the First Amendment was to ensure all speech because all speech was viewed as equal based on the premise of equal weight within reason. The tiered environment created by money destroys the assumed ‘equal weight’ environment, which ‘housed’ the First Amendment. The court in First Nat. Bank of Boston v. Bellotti did not properly appreciate this understanding.

Now one could argue that the ‘influence’ of newspapers and other print media, which received an exception before Citizens, also destroyed this environment. Such an argument is not correct. Newspapers offered the option of readers commenting on inaccuracies or perceived impartialities through the ‘letters to the editor’ section reducing the argument weight relative to the opinion produced by the paper. This option is not available for print insert, television or radio advertisements, the principle mediums of action by those who ‘demonstrate their speech’ with money.

Based on the entry costs associated with these mediums there is little to no opportunity for the average citizen to counter inaccurate information given by these ‘speechmakers’. In addition these ‘speechmakers’ can repetitively engage in this speech tapping into a very large audience. This lack of correction as a means to control weight is important because most of these advertisements are ripe with inaccurate and/or misleading information because to those producing them the point is not to win an election fairly, honestly and/or morally, the point is to win by any means necessary.

Another problem is that individuals and media outlets have an inherent ceiling to the influence they can exhibit in a political environment. Basically the maximum weight of their argument is reasonably capped. Individuals engage in direct speech (i.e. soapbox) are clearly limited by time and resources so their message(s) rarely carry lasting influence. Newspapers only produce one paper per day, which heavily restricts the content that it can devote to attacking/praising a given candidate(s) or the total influence it has as numerous papers would have to devote large percentages of space to a given candidate to generate lasting influence.

Television stations have a greater theoretical ceiling having the ability to disseminate content all 24 hours in a day, but face a ‘feasibility’ ceiling in that devoting too much aired content to attacking/praising a given candidate(s) will drive away undecided and ‘independent’ viewers allowing the station in question to only retain individuals devoted to loving/hating that given candidate/policy in a pre-conceived way. The tiered structure of ‘money speech’ has a much larger ceiling as advertisements of support/ridicule can appear in many different mediums generating huge levels of exposure (dwarfing those of newspapers and single television stations) with a much lower probability of turning off individuals who the advertisements are meant to influence.

Therefore, these advantages make ‘money speech’ much more valuable than ‘conventional speech’ and the more money one has the more ‘money speech’ one can make. Some try to make the argument that many people can ‘pool’ their money into collective organizations which would represent their interests with more ‘money speech’ than these individuals could muster on their own. Unfortunately due to the incredible imbalance in the current economic system the only organizations of this nature that could compete with corporate interests acting as a potential counterbalance are worker unions.

However, individuals who oppose the existence of these unions, because they do not agree with their political positions, are continuously attacking these institutions in various states in effort to destroy them. The systematic attempt to eliminate these established ‘common man’ money pools and the inability of other pools to generate equalizing amounts of money to compete with corporate interests heavily damages the validity of the pooled money argument. It is reasonable to suggest that the largest corporations will always have dramatically more ‘money speech’ than common citizens or smaller companies.

Those who argue that the point of Citizens was to liberate the ‘money speech’ for small businesses are either naïve or purposely misleading their audience. Available ‘money speech’ for small businesses only matters if that business agrees with the position of a larger business and if this is the case then there is little point for the small business to contribute because of vast percentage of the ‘speech’ on that given topic will be made by the larger business because it has more to gain or lose from influencing policy. If the smaller business disagrees with the larger business in a matter of policy there is no reasonable expectation that the smaller business will be able to utilize the ‘advantage’ of its ‘money speech’ to defeat the opinion of the larger business. In fact lack of viable restrictions on ‘money speech’ actually weakens the power of the speech for the small business relative to large business regardless of which business is actually right.

Interestingly the characterization of money as speech changes an intangible element to a tangible one, which actually strengthens the argument for regulating this type of speech. The original point of Citizens (from the petitioner’s viewpoint) argument was that it was not fair that their organization was restricted from releasing a political advertisement based on a specific time deadline, a deadline which did not apply to media organizations. The argument was that this deadline was a complete restriction of their organization’s ‘speech’. One could see the potential validity of their argument in that their ‘speech’ was being restricted in its entirety by the deadline. However, while the First Amendment disallows a government entity (federal, state or local) the ability to restrict an individual from speaking at all (outside of very specific situations), it does not restrict that same government entity from applying restrictions to certain types of speech.

A similar vein can be seen within the Second Amendment in that even if one argues that the rights of private citizens not in a government sponsored militia to bear arms are supported by the Second Amendment, an argument that is nearly impossible to make logically, government can still restrict the types of arms one can own legally. For example just because the Second Amendment states one can bear arms does not mean that the government has to allow an individual the right to own a nuclear bomb. Thus the right to bear arms is not universally protected in all forms. The same logic can be applied to the First Amendment in the form of ‘money speech’. Based on that precedent the government could place a ceiling on how much money a ‘person’ could spend in a given election cycle (just not donate to a given candidate, but actually spend be it independently or through some subsidiary).

One could argue that such ceilings were addressed in Buckley v. Valeo, but the reasoning in Buckley is incredibly naïve when addressing the ceilings relative to the improbability of corruption: “[the] absence of pre-arrangement and coordination…alleviates the danger that expenditures will be given as a quid pro quo for improper commitments from the candidate.” Perhaps one could hold on to such illusions in 1976 when the Buckley ruling was made, but with changes in technology as well as existing anecdotal evidence over the last 30 years it is extremely difficult to view such a reasoning as valid in 2009 (when Citizens was ruled) or 2011.

Another interesting association between the First Amendment and money can also generate allowable government restriction. The spirit of the First Amendment was designed to protect differing opinions, but not opinions that were deterministically false, there is a reason libel and slander laws exist. Normally deterministically false statements are of little consequence because of the small scale in which they occur; however, within each election cycle based on what is at stake due to how the decisions legislators make influence the well-being of the general public the importance of deterministically false speech in the election environment, regardless of intent, is significantly magnified. Therefore, it should be the prerogative of a government agency to penalize and restrict individuals or groups making clearly false, ambiguous or misleading ‘money speech’ in an election environment within proper jurisdictions.

Some want to argue that these types of restrictions are not necessary largely because voters are intelligent actors and money invested in election cycles only has a muted influence on which candidate a voter votes for. This reasoning seems to fall short of viability on two points. First, if such a statement were accurate then why are hundreds of millions of dollars spent in each major Federal election cycle; clearly the individuals/groups spending this money have conducted numerous studies to identify the best and most efficient means to spend the money as ‘speech’. Therefore, it is difficult to accept the reasoning that all of this money and time would be spent on an endeavor that had little to no influence.

Second, the belief that general voters intelligently analyze candidate platforms and logically determine whether those platforms are valid and will be effective at solving problems is naïve. Most voters do not either have the time, the experience or the desire to undertake such a task, especially because of the general lack of specificity offered by candidates on their platform (most simply give general stock answers to questions or flat out lie). Thus, without this in-depth analysis most voters rely on media outlets and advertisements to ‘inform’ them regarding political platforms and opinions. Overall ‘money speech’ clearly plays a significant role in politics with regards to influencing voting trends and habits and to argue otherwise is simply foolish.

When considering the manner of speech itself a distinction must be drawn regarding subjectivity. There are two types of elected official: legislative and judicial (note that this categorization is different from branches of government of which there are three). These two categories are divided by the roles they play in crafting the law. The legislative category is responsible for creating, debating and passing/failing perspective legislation (the President is also a part of this category) where the judicial category is responsible for determining whether two separate laws contradict and how to resolve that contradiction and address criminal sentencing.

Between these two categories the legislative one has a much greater level of subjectivity relative to how to solve a given problem. The purpose of passing new laws is to solve a problem in society, yet due to imperfect knowledge and boundary conditions the analysis ability to determine whether or not a given solution is successful is not purely determinate. An extremely simple example of this process is determining a solution for x + y = 7. In this situation there are numerous solutions to the problem regardless of methodology.

However, the general openness of the legislative category does not exist for the judicial category. Determining if a given piece of legislation is constitutional, in conflict with another piece of legislation or if a defendant is guilty, etc. are much more restrictive due to existing logic and boundary conditions. For example for this category instead of x + y = 7 the problem is x + y = 7 where x > 3 and y is positive. Basically the level of subjectivity is much smaller and there are fewer viable possibilities for x and y.

The general point of speech in the election of an individual who will take a legislative role, regardless of type, is to demonstrate support for a particular idea or group of ideas that embodies the candidate. It can be argued that another rationality is to exhibit support for certain personal characteristics of the candidate, which could allow him/her to better work with other legislators to come to a deal. This situation is different for a judicial election because the limited options eliminate the second rationality for speech support. Judges do not negotiate with other judges in a quid-pro-quo manner similar to politicians. The first opinion is also significantly hindered by the limited number of correct options due to sentencing guidelines, logic and legal precedent. Therefore, speech in support or opposition against judicial candidates can only effectively be given as a measure of how effective a judge is at upholding the law on an analytical basis.

Unfortunately most of the ‘money speech’ in judicial elections is based around fear and bias largely driven by an attempt to seat like-minded individuals regardless of whether or not the legal opinions of the candidate in question are correct. This lack of respect for the legal system is troubling and actually could allow for the restriction of support/detraction speech in judicial elections due to Brandenburg v. Ohio.

Brandenburg v. Ohio largely addressed the issue of ‘clear and present danger’ exception to the First Amendment, which was first validated in Schenck v. United States. Originally the ‘clear and present danger’ exception was clarified under the ‘bad tendency’ test in Whitney v. California where if the speech has a tendency to cause sedition or lawlessness it could be constitutionally prohibited. However, Brandenburg created a new standard for the exception through a three-pronged test, which limited its application restricting government ability to restrict speech. The three elements that make up the test are intent, imminence and likelihood. When individuals devote ‘money speech’ to the defeat of a sitting judge who has not demonstrate malfeasance it can be argued that such ‘speech’ is meets the three elements of the Brandenburg test.

Arguing that a judge that has a reputation for ruling correctly legally and logically should be replaced in an election demonstrates intent in that supporters of the challenger believe that the challenger will rule differently than the sitting judge. However, if the sitting judge has ruled correctly then these supporters are supporting a candidate who will rule incorrectly, a candidate that intends to break the law by improperly evaluating it. Likelihood occurs because judges do not summarily rule on the constitutionality of an issue randomly and spontaneously, typically a petitioner must bring a suit, which challenges the standing of a given law. Therefore, if an individual is bringing a suit and is successful it stands to reason that the likelihood of that individual acting upon that new ruling is very high.

The only questionable element is imminence, but similar to likelihood it stands to reason that if an individual is bringing a suit against a particular law that if it is overturned that petitioner will act upon the law as soon as possible (a near immediate effect). Therefore, it appears possible that the government would be authorized to disallow ‘money speech’ in an election against a standing incumbent judge who has not demonstrated malfeasance.

Note that ‘money speech’ would be targeted in the above example over general speech because of the breadth of contact. The ‘danger’ in a judicial election is an individual taking the bench who will make judgments that are incorrect solely due to personal or professional motivations. Only ‘money speech’ has the ability to influence enough people to elect the judicial candidate who will be inappropriate for the job. There is little reason to suspect that general speech will be able to create a sufficient level of influence. Also note that the ability of the government to restrict ‘money speech’ only applies to judicial elections with an incumbent as there is not existing record to judge for two competing non-incumbents.

One exception that could be discussed regarding an incumbent re-election is past action within the sentencing range. While the judicial rulings on guilt and constitutionality are rather firm, the most subjective aspect of a judge’s role is sentencing. Some individuals may disagree with a judge who assigns penalties on the higher edge of the guidelines (5 years instead of 3 years for a 3-5 guideline crime) or visa-versa. In these situations if ‘money speech’ can demonstrate specific instances of such behavior through explicit citations then it would be difficult to eliminate ‘money speech’ made in opposition of that premise on the basis of the Brandenburg test.

One may try to argue that ‘money speech’ should never be restricted in elections based on the sole element of personal opinion regarding likeability. Basically ‘money speech’ could be used simply to exclaim to the public that candidate A is a ‘good guy’ and individual or organization A likes him. The problem with this mindset is that it is very unlikely that an individual or organization would spend thousands to tens of thousands of dollars in ‘money speech’ driven only by a personal like for the given candidate, there will be an ulterior motive.

Overall while the rationality in that completely restricting the ability of an individual or organization to participate in the political process through purchasing advertisement may seem logical, the First Amendment also does not guarantee unlimited speech in an environment when all individuals do not have the same opportunity for speech. Therefore, this realization logically, and more than likely legally, gives the government the ability to place a ceiling on the total ability of individuals to ‘speak’ in these types of environments. For example the government could set a ceiling on the amount of money that a given individual or corporation could spend in an election cycle to 20,000 dollars. Also based on the general differences between those who make the law and those who enforce punishment and interpret the law monetary speech restrictions in judicial elections could be even more strict, possibly even disallowed. While some believe that the ruling in Citizens significantly curtailed the government’s ability to restrict corporate money in political activities, any interpretation that the government is unable to apply monetary caps to corporations or individuals for political activities is unethical and logically wrong.

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Intestinal Bacteria and Obesity

Some important biochemical interactions and responses to obesity have previously been discussed here.

In recent years explanations for the sudden rise in obesity have ranged from a further unbalanced internal biological energy balance to environmental pollution. Another accompanying explanation that is gaining support is that the type of bacteria residing in an individual’s intestinal tract is important relative to what foods an individual consumes. There is widespread belief that particular bacteria types drive certain metabolic rates and processes that have a significant effect on weight loss vs. weight retention.

The digestive process can be broken down into three stages after chewing. First, the food enters the stomach and is rendered into chyme by hydrochloric acid. Second, the chyme goes into the small intestine where a vast majority of the nutrient absorption occurs through osmosis, active transport and diffusion to nearby capillaries and eventual transport to the blood stream. Third, the indigestible and unabsorbed material passes through the large intestine where some of the indigestible material is processed (usually fermentation) by appropriate intestinal bacteria, water is reabsorbed and remaining material is packaged for excretion. It is this third element that is of particular interest here.

The human intestinal “metagenome” consists of trillions of microbes that provide enhanced metabolic capabilities due to absent enzyme inclusion (polysaccharide metabolization), protection against pathogens (indirect mucosal defense and luminal colonization competition), immune system support and aids gastrointestinal development and maintenance through interaction with epithelial cells.1-5 The two major elements which drive the specific populations of the metagenome in a given individual are genetics and diet. At the moment there is little that can be done regarding genetics, but the influence of diet is prevalent and that influence begins as early as infancy.1 In fact there is reason to believe that this “metagenome” is most influenced within the first few years of life and can have significant effect on immunity development.6,7

A vast majority of intestinal bacteria belong to one of two phylum of bacteria: Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes. Among these two phylum the bacteria in the intestinal with the largest populations are thought to be (in no particular order) genera Bacteroides (bact.), Clostridium (firm.), Bifidobacterium (bact.), Peptostreptococcus (firm.) and Ruminococcus (firm.) with minor populations of Escherichia (proteo), Lactobacillus (firm), Enterobacter (proteo) and Enterococcus (firm) with various methanogens.3,8,9. The parentheses identify the phylum type for the particular bacteria. It must be emphasized that specifics regarding exact populations are still far and few between relative to the specific genus which make up the Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes phylums for they contain 250 and 20 genera respectively;10 however, it is thought that Ruminococcus makes up a significant percentage of the Firmicutes phylum. On a side note Firmicutes bacteria are typically gram-positive (outside a very small few which have pseudo membrane walls) and Bacteroidetes bacteria are typically gram-negative.

Not surprisingly various intestinal bacteria populations are not evenly distributed throughout the digestive system, but each specific bacteria group has some environmental niche, notable is that higher bacterial populations are found in the lower portion of the intestinal tract vs. the upper portion. Also the upper portion has a large percentage of aerobic bacteria vs. the lower portion having a large percentage of anaerobic bacteria with the terminal ileum as the transition zone.7,11

The principle reason why intestinal bacteria have perked interest in the obesity ‘epidemic’ originated from an experiment in mice which demonstrated that intestinal bacteria play an important role in energy metabolism and weight changes. The study involved using a set of control mice and axenic mice (note that axenic mice are mice without any significant amounts of intestinal bacteria i.e. germ-free mice). Under normal conditions the axenic mice, controlled for age and background, weighted about 40% less than the control mice. However, after colonizing intestinal microflora (from the distal section) derived from the control mice within the axenic mice, the weight of the axenic mice increased by 60% over a short period of time.12 The inclusion of the microflora is thought to influence weight gain through three mechanisms: increases in intestinal glucose absorption, energy extraction from indigestible foods and concomitant higher glycemia and insulinemia.12,13

Changes in the suggested mechanisms from above are though to occur through influence on the action of two signaling proteins: carbohydrate response element-binding protein (ChREBP) and liver sterol response element-binding protein type-1 (SREBP-1) which in turn influence intestinal fasting-induced adipocyte factor [Fiaf; a.k.a. (angiopoietin-like protein 4)].14 When Fiaf is expressed it inhibits lipoprotein lipase activity, which increases the probability that fatty acids are released from triacylglycerols; these fatty acids can then be absorbed by muscles and adipose tissues to be used as energy (basically the fatty acids are consumed). If Fiaf is not expressed then lipoprotein lipase activity increases, increasing the probability of more fat synthesis. Germ-free mice seem to avoid obesity due to excess food consumption, commonly called diet-induced obesity, through three independent mechanisms: increased levels of Fiaf, increased levels of adenosine monophosphate activated protein kinase and reduced food consumption.14

Since the original study more studies have demonstrated differing intestinal bacteria populations in individuals of various weights. Most studies have developed support for a similar pattern between the obese and the non-obese in that more obese mice have a higher population of Firmicutes over Bacteroidetes.15-18 However, other studies have demonstrated no changes with populations in these bacteria or even the reverse with Bacteroidetes at higher population than Firmicutes.19,20 Thus the principle question becomes: do bacteria x protect against obesity in some way or are they simply preferentially selected in non-obese individuals vs. bacteria x which are preferentially selected in obese individuals?

Associate these elements with the fact that the Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes ratio drops when obese individuals lose weight (assuming no dramatic increase in fiber consumption) and Firmicutes population could be tied to fat, possibly through lipid production and storage. One study did demonstrate specific enzymatic activity in obese individuals associated with gram positive bacteria (Firmicutes) over gram negative bacteria (Bacteroidetes).21,22

The problem with fully determining the role of the Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes relationship is the contrasting results. For example some studies report that Bacteroidetes population increases from 3% to 15% with a hypocaloric diet in obese individuals where the Firmicutes population does not undergo significant changes.13,19 If this case is accurate it indicates that Firmicutes growth is not augmented by increased calories/fat, but instead Bacteroidetes growth is inhibited by those elements in some way. However, others report a decrease in Firmicutes population with weight loss and a decrease in Bacteroidetes (50% reduction) in obese individuals vs. non-obese.19

The issue with the Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes ratio may not be the change in the ratio, but instead the change in absolute population. For example in obese individuals what drives the change in the ratio, a decrease in Bacteroidetes population, an increase in Firmicutes population or do both change in general consort with each other? For example if an increase in the Firmicutes population is the dominating factor then it could be possible that Firmicutes responds to non-insoluble fiber elements. However, if a decrease in the Bacteroidetes population is the dominating factor then it could be possible that Bacteroidetes reduces fat absorption.

Other results have shown that axenic mice gain more weight when colonized with microbiota from obese mice opposed to lean mice.15 This result leads to the question of whether Firmicutes are able to extract more energy from a conventional diet over Bacteroidetes or do Firmicutes drive greater amounts of fat storage over Bacteroidetes? The second possibility sees support in that decreases in Bifidobacterium in mice fed a high fat diet also correlated to an increase in lipid polysaccharide (LPS) concentrations.23

The ‘battle’ between Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes begins at birth. The most influential element in early childhood appears to be the duration of time an infant spends consuming breast milk over solid foods and formulas.1 Based on comparisons of Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes populations between infants who consume breast milk and infants who consume formula, infants that consume breast milk longer have lower Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes ratios and seem to have lower probabilities for future obesity1,24-26 (E/A, Gillman et al. 2001, Kalies et al. 2005, Mayer-Davis et al. 2006). Examination of different populations of infants between Africa and Europe supported this conclusion of higher Bacteroidetes populations and lower Firmicutes populations in children breastfeed longer. The rationality behind the difference between African and European children is that Africa infants had to be breastfeed for additional time due to financial limitation or resource availability regarding formula.

One of the major reasons for this developmental difference seems to be the population growth of Lactobacilli and Bifidobacteria in breastfeed infants vs. formula feed infants, which fail to develop these two types of bacteria in significant proportions.27-29 The colonization of Bifidobacteria is thought to be especially important in the maturation of the intestinal lining and localized lymphoid tissue and delayed Bifidobacterial colonization increases the probability of a variety of gastrointestinal and/or allergic conditions.30-32

Originally it was thought that the bacteria present in breast milk was from skin contaminates, but recent testing has developed support for the idea that the bacteria is, not surprisingly, derived from the maternal intestine and follows the entero-mammary pathway to the mammary gland.33 Also no Bifidobacteria has ever been isolated from skin samples from women who have Bifidobacteria in their breast milk.30 The derivation of these bacterium from the mother’s own intestinal system may provide insight into why obese mothers have children that are pre-disposed to becoming obese and why fit mothers have children that have resistance against obesity as those bacteria populations heavily influence the populations in the infants.

Another important association between intestinal bacteria and obesity is the role of interspecies hydrogen transfer from hydrogen producing bacterium to hydrogen consuming methanogens. Non-obese individuals have very small methanogen-based intestinal populations whereas obese individuals have larger populations.10 This population shift has also been associated with genetically homogeneous obese mice (ob+/ob+) over heterogeneous mice (ob+/ob-) and homogeneous non-obese (ob-/ob-).15 The association with genetically obese mice over mice that have become obese through food consumption supports the notion that methanogen population influences weight over methanogen bacteria being selected for based on weight. Basically the methanogen population of bacteria expands first before one gains significant weight. The importance behind this relationship is best demonstrated by understanding the biochemical process involved in the formation of fatty acids in the body.

Methanogens like Methanobrevibacter smithii enhance fermentation efficiency by removing excess free hydrogen and formate in the colon. A reduced concentration of hydrogen leads to an increased rate of conversion of insoluble fibers into short-chain fatty acids.10 Proprionate, acetate, butyrate and formate are the most common SCFAs formed and absorbed across the intestinal epithelium providing a significant portion of the energy for intestinal epithelial cells promoting survival, differentiation and proliferation ensuring effective stomach lining.3,10,34 Butyric acid is also utilized by the colonocytes.35 Formate also can be directly used by hydrogenotrophic methanogens and propionate and lactate can be fermented to acetate and H2.10

The Methanobrevibacter smithii population in non-obese individuals is very small on an absolute level whereas the population in obese individuals is much higher (gastric). This result is supported by metagenomic study which identified more Archaea gene fragments in ob+/ob+ mice over leaner heterogeneous ob+/- or ob-/ob- mice.15 Overall the population of Archaea bacteria in the gut, largely associated to Methanobrevibacter smithii, is tied to obesity with the key factor being availability of free hydrogen. If there is a lot of free hydrogen then there is a higher probability for a lot of Archaea, otherwise there is a very low population of Archaea because there is a limited ‘food source’.

Interestingly anorexic individuals also see an increase in Methanogen bacteria (Methanobrevibacter) over non-obese healthy individuals.21 This increase in anorexic individuals seems to make sense as fermentation rates probably increase in effort to maximize energy optimization from food intake due to reduced food consumption. Increased fermentation rates would increase H2 concentrations resulting in increased Methanogen populations.

Other investigators have looked at how receptor interaction with intestinal microbes influences weight. A promising avenue of research is Toll-like receptor (TLR) 5, a transmembrane protein expressed in the intestinal mucosa that recognizes bacterial flagellin.35 Analysis of TLR5 knockout mice vs. controls demonstrates a 20% greater body mass in the knockouts, a weight which corresponds to an increase in visceral fat.35 This additional body mass is thought to occur through greater food consumption (knockout mice consume 10% more food than controls), which seems to lead to greater fat deposit formation. However, despite this increased food consumption there were no significant changes in short-chain fatty acid concentrations between knockouts and controls.35 Also due to mixed results it is difficult to draw any conclusions regarding differing influences on orexigenic or anorexic hormones between knockouts and control.35

Elimination of intestinal bacteria through broad spectrum antibiotic treatment supported the contention that intestinal bacteria and TLR5 had an interactive relationship in controlling an individual’s weight as germfree TLR5 knockout mice did not suffer from the same weight gain as their TLR5 knockout non-germ free kin.35 The implantation of the microbiota from a TLR5 knockout mouse into a previously germ-free non-knockout mouse lead to the development of a similar phenotype to the TLR5 knockout in the germ-free mouse.35 This result suggests that there are certain bacteria that interact with TLR5 because despite the non-knockouts having the necessary receptors they still develop attributes similar the knockouts, thus the microbiota of the knockouts do not appear to have the required bacteria for activation. This lacking makes sense because without TLR5 receptors it stands to reason that bacteria, which activate TLR5, would be selected against.

Based on the information above it appears that activation of TLR5 somehow reduces weight gain. This result occurs either through interaction between TLR5 and orexigenic and anorexic hormones (which would influence appetite) or involves the reduction in fat deposit synthesis from soluble elements. Due to the results from germfree knockouts and the mixed hormone results, the second possibility seems viable. For example interaction between Bacteroidetes and TLR5 could lead to the inhibition of lipoprotein lipase activity (possibility through increased expression of Fiaf). This action would result in less fat storage and less overall weight gain.

If the above contention were true this action of changing Fiaf expression probably has a positive feedback effect in lean individuals and a negative feedback effect in obese individuals. For example as individuals lose weight the Bacteroidetes population increases which would lead to more TLR5 activation and less fat storage. However, as individuals gain weight Bacteroidetes population decreases which would lead to less TLR5 activation and increase the probability for greater fat storage.

One of the big remaining questions is how do the populations of Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes change to influence weight changes? One possibility is that while both Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes assist in fermentation perhaps Bacteroidetes are more responsive to complex sugars and other complex carbohydrates and Firmicutes are more responsive to simple sugars. Usually obese individuals consume lots of fat and simple sugars which are converted more easily to fat. The consumption of these types of foods select for Firmicutes over Bacteroidetes. When an individual loses weight it typically involves changes in the diet largely a reduction the amount of simple sugars and fats. This change could lead to a reduction in Firmicutes and due to less competition from the Firmicutes a corresponding increase in Bacteroidetes.

Another possibility for the increase in Bacteroidetes is that weight loss (excluding surgical intervention) involves a large amount of exercise. This additional exercise would lead to larger demands for energy consumption both in currently stored fat and newly consumed food. Such a change should reduce the amount of fat storage possibly involving the increased expression of TLR5 which could increase the population of Bacteroidetes if Bacteroidetes do indeed activate TLR5.

Overall it certainly appears that Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes play an important role in controlling weight. This influence seems to stem from two different mechanisms: overall food consumption and the extraction of energy from that food and probability of fat storage vs. fat consumption. While the exact mechanisms have not been discovered, Bacteroidetes appears to favor lean bodies and Firmicutes appears to favor obese bodies. Whether or not there is an evolutionary element is unclear. Beastfeeding also appears to be an important early element in driving either a lean or obese future. Due to potential feedback elements associated with fat content and intestinal bacteria populations like Firmicutes doping individuals with Bacteroidetes like Bifidobacteria may seem like a good idea, but the best option for weight loss involves the old stable tactics of high quality diet with insoluble fibers and exercise.

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